Sunday, April 26, 2009

Final Top 100 Pick Draft Analysis

I increased my database to include top 100 rankings from 12 different sources. Integration was still slow due to miss and alternate spellings of names (popular corrections included Evander "Ziggy" Hood, Chris "Beanie" Wells, and many ways to spell "Laurinaitis".) Here's the results (again, a positive number means the pick was considered a value at that draft position; negative means the pick was a reach):

The Lions' picks within the top 100:
01) Matthew Stafford -3.33
20) Brandon Pettigrew -0.66
33) Louis Delmas -16.083
76) DeAndre Levy -25
82) Derrick Williams 8.25
Average Value = -7.366 (19th of all teams).

Best teams:
1: Chicago = 22.0416
2: Cincinnati = 17.1458
3: Philadelphia = 7.333

Worst teams:
30: Cleveland = -23.4375
31: Dallas = -24.667
32: Oakland = -34.194

Overall, these statistics don't mean much. It's just a ranking system based on how the experts viewed the players before the draft began. I'll likely repeat this exercise next year, but post results before AND after the draft. Hope you enjoy. Special thanks to NetRat for pointing out his list of draft resources!


  1. I like how you put this together.

    I find it interesting how Chicago was ranked so well when they didn't have a pick until the 3rd round. The further you get from the top picks the more variability you will find in the ranks.

    I wonder if it would make sense to put more weight on the early picks and less on the later ones?

  2. That's a really good point. Perhaps next year I'll need to incorporate some sort of normalization factor based on the standard deviation of the rating.

  3. nice site spacecatz! very interesting stuff.

    See you also follow NetRat. Check out my blog and head on over to comment as well if you like -

    Go Lions!

    BTW - cool pictures! Wish I knew the signifigance...