Friday, April 27, 2012

A Draft-Day Resurrection!

Whoa, it's dusty in here.  It looks like this place has been abandoned for about a year... what a mess.

There's a good reason, though.  The blog needs to be renamed, because I'm no longer at 1663.  I spent the past year looking for jobs, and I am now Spacecataz at the University of Michigan.  This is very good news, but must wait for another time.

Let's get back to what's important: the NFL draft.  The consensus draft ranking has again been performed.  Let's look at the results after one round:
What strikes me here is how few picks were rated as a value (the player was ranked at or below the selection position where they were picked).  Most picks were a slight reach.  This makes me wonder about the overall quality of this draft as teams were much more willing to reach than in previous years.

The Lions and the Steelers stand out with their picks of Reiff (+9.9) and DeCastro (+13.9), respectively and consecutively, two highly regarded linemen who slipped to 23 and 24.  It is nice to see that the Lions are grouped together with a team as well respected as the Steelers.  My feeling about the Lions' pick is that it is one that will not result in drastic improvement, but rather ensure continuation of their recent success.

Finally, there are three notable reaches: the Bears' pick of Shea McClellin (-28.1), the 49ers' pick of wideout AJ Jenkins (-58.3), and the Seahawks super-reach for defensive end Bruce Irvin (-66.7).  Though I consider these rankings to be a rough guide at best, the last two reaches are so distant that they are destined to disappoint (see, for example, the Raiders' selections in the first round over the past few years).

That's the current status, I'll keep updating as each day ends.  I'll be quite late about the 2nd round because I'll be on an airplane for the rest of the day.  Finally, I'll discuss updates to the software that have helped me complete the study in record time.

Special thanks to NetRat for contributing his top 100 player list!

Edit: Those new to the consensus draft system I have set up can find the best discussion of it here.

No comments:

Post a Comment