Friday, April 23, 2010

Round 1 Results and Thoughts

The first round started as expected but was full of some interesting surprises. Let's take a look.

According to the Consensus Big Board, my average of as many top-100 player boards as I can find, Green Bay had the biggest value pick, grabbing Bryan Bulaga at 23 for a 13.2 spot value. There was a lot of reaching going on in the first round, most notably by Jacksonville (reaching 47.2 spots Tyson Alualu) and Houston (Kareem Jackson, a 22 spot reach). Denver picking Tebow was a 31.1 spot reach, but this one is tricky because of Tebow's strange throwing motion, non-pro experience, but immense intangibles.

Biggest values still on the board: Clausen (13), Sergio Kindle (25.3), and Taylor Mays (yuck! 27.5)

What about Detroit? Suh was the consensus #1 player, so grabbing him at 2 was a slight value. Best was a slight reach, 5.4 spots, but they traded up to grab him. Best was clearly a gamble; if he pays off, Mayhew will look like the greatest anti-Millen ever to grace this planet. I like the pick but am nervous at the same time. I guess we'll see.

Here's the overall first round rankings. Remember that the consensus board ranks each pick using a BPA mentality. It doesn't necessarily mean anything about the quality of each pick but indicates how each pick compares to the overall talent board. Jax may wind up looking like geniuses, but for now they own the Al Davis Draft Award for 2010.

Remember: positive numbers are Values, negative numbers are Reaches.

1 St_Louis == Sam Bradford -2.8
2 Detroit == Ndamukong Suh 0.89999999999999
3 Tampa_Bay == Gerald McCoy 0.2
4 Washington == Trent Williams -3
5 Kansas_City == Eric Berry 1.1
6 Seattle == Russell Okung 1
7 Cleveland == Joe Haden -3.6
8 Oakland == Rolando McClain -1.8
9 Buffalo == CJ Spiller -1.4
10 Jacksonville == Tyson Alualu -47.2
11 San_Francisco == Anthony Davis -6.7
12 San_Diego == Ryan Mathews -15.1
13 Philadelphia == Brandon Graham -5.1
14 Seattle == Earl Thomas -1.6
15 NY_Giants == Jason Pierre-Paul -3.6999999999999
16 Tennessee == Derrick Morgan 6.5
17 San_Francisco == Mike Iupati -3.9000000000001
18 Pittsburgh == Maurkice Pouncey -10.5
19 Atlanta == Sean Weatherspoon -5.5
20 Houston == Kareem Jackson -22.0999999999999
21 Cincinnati == Jermaine Gresham -2.3
22 Denver == Demaryius Thomas -9.6
23 Green_Bay == Bryan Bulaga 13.2
24 Dallas == Dez Bryant 9.4
25 Denver == Tim Tebow -31.1
26 Arizona == Dan Williams 10.2
27 New_England == Devin McCourty -0.5
28 Miami == Jared Odrick 1.5
29 NY_Jets == Kyle Wilson 6
30 Detroit == Jahvid Best -5.4
31 Indianapolis == Jerry Hughes -4
32 New_Orleans == Patrick Robinson -9.8

3 comments:

  1. Quick question for you: My Dad has always wanted a telescope and I'm going to get him one for Father's day -- I'd like to look in the $300ish range since I want a good, solid, basic beginner scope. Been recommended to one - a Meade LTX80 at tc. What are your thoughts/recommendations, and where can I find one??? Please shoot me an email - thanks!!! BTW - good stuff on the BPA value board this year.

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  2. Hey, DetFan!

    I'll shoot you a quick email; glad you like the (messy) breakdown.

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  3. Now that I've found your blog... I think you should really talk about important topics. Like why you should always wear pants when you open the door in Los Alamos. :)

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